Solar Power

Matt Simmons Powerpoint: Hawaii and Peak Oil

kauaibrad — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 16:19:36 -0800

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Matt Simmons Powerpoint:

Click on: CAN HAWAII ADJUST TO A POST-PEAK OIL WORLD?

Towns and Cities Should Prepare for Peak Oil...NOW

kauaibrad — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 11:10:40 -0800

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Liquid Fuels and Heating Oil Crises

The U.S. is highly dependent on oil for transportation, food production, industry, manufacturing, and residential and institutional heating. Oil is unique in providing gasoline and diesel, which are relatively inexpensive and portable. Oil also provides heating for many of the nation’s homes, institutions, and businesses. Despite advances in battery technology, battery powered tractors/combines and trucks do not provide a range that is practical. The so-called electric economy is not even in a planning stage of development. There are no alternatives that will replace oil.

Peak Oil is the term given for the point of maximum global production of oil, after which oil production will decline over a period of years until all recoverable oil is depleted. Peak Oil is a geological reality that is recognized by the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, General Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service, Army Corps of Engineers, and the National Petroleum Council.

Future oil production from off shore locations, Brazil, the Arctic, and the Gulf of Mexico etc., as well as future oil discoveries, will not provide enough new production to offset declining production in the largest oil fields.

Kauai No Time to Waste: Oil supply will have peaked by 2020, says authority IEA

kauaibrad — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 03:13:20 -0800

When will the oil run out?
George Monbiot interviews Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency - (Video: George Monbiot meets Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, See: Link to this video)

"...In the report on peak oil commissioned by the US department of energy, the oil analyst Robert L Hirsch concluded that "without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs" of world oil supplies peaking "will be unprecedented". He went on to explain what "timely mitigation" meant. Even a worldwide emergency response "10 years before world oil peaking", he wrote, would leave "a liquid-fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked". To avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin "a mitigation crash programme 20 years before peaking". If Hirsch is right, and if oil supplies peak before 2028, we're in deep ****.

Simmons on IEA: "Current 73 million barrels of oil a day to 25 million b/d by 2030"

kauaibrad — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 23:59:31 -0800

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Simmons on IEA: "Current 73 million barrels of oil a day to 25 million b/d by 2030" David Ward of Kauai's notes from the below audio link interview of December 13, 2008:

"Matthew Simmons says that the IEA's actual position as stated by Dr. Fatih Birol, (IEA Cheif Economist) in 'quiet' briefings to world governments is that:

'Basically the game is over.... Based on the most optimistic assumptions they can make (using their access to the best raw data in the world - 798 fields) current crude oil production of 73 million barrels a day will be down to 25 million barrels a day by 2030.'

And that's absolutely the best possible case. The IEA's worst case is 9 million barrels per day by 2030 according to Simmons (although he thinks even that could be optimistic).

Electricity rates and cars on Kauai and Hawaii

kauaibrad — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 20:49:15 -0800

Tuesday, December 9, 2008 Electricity rates and cars on Kauai and Hawaii Following up on KIUC's Residential Electricity Rates and the Next Step from November 25, 2008, in which it was reported here of KIUC's expected December residential electricity rate of $0.2745 per kWh, The Garden Island newspaper had a couple of good articles yesterday, Dec. 8, 2008:

First, from KIUC rates drop with oil prices, "The Kaua‘i Island Utility Cooperative’s announced Friday its effective electric rates are now the second lowest in the state for the month of December at just over $0.27 per kWh..." and the following very interesting data:

'Hawaii: Peak Oil Canary in a Coal Mine'

kauaibrad — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:29:36 -0800

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

'Hawaii: Peak Oil Canary in a Coal Mine'

Also, recently came across the following related outstanding post on The Oil Drum about Hawaii:

See: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4192
"Hawaii: Peak Oil Canary in a Coal Mine"
Posted by Gail the Actuary on June 22, 2008

Powerpoints from the Hawaii Energy Challenge 2008

kauaibrad — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:23:43 -0800

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Powerpoints from the Hawaii Energy Challenge 2008 Today, Ken Stokes reviewed the Hawaii Energy Challenge 2008 that took place late last month on the Big Island. Matt Simmons spoke at that and here is a report on his comments.

Here are the Powerpoints from that conference, only slightly different than the one on Kauai last September:

From http://www.hec08.com/followup.html:

PRESENTATIONS & FOLLOW-UP

KIUC's Residential Electricity Rates and the Next Step

kauaibrad — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:24:26 -0800

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Thanks to Randy Hee for his explanation in TGI, "KIUC's 'energy adjustment' explained," on November 16, where Randy also refers readers, "to http://www.kiuc.coop/ and click on Energy Information."

Following Randy's recommendation, clicking on the graph for "Fuel Oil Cost" per barrel for diesel and naptha, one sees that both have come down at least 50% from their highs in August through November.

Also clicking on the "Rate Data Sheet" there, it mentions Residential kWh rates of $0.49 for August, $0.44 for Sept., $0.41 for Oct., $0.36 for Nov., and just approved $0.2745 for December. Although, the statements I am looking at were charged $0.456 for Sept. and $0.42 for October.

Looking further at KIUC's website, we see a graph "Fuel Cost" per kWh for each month. From July through October, this came down from $0.303/kWh to $0.237/kWh, only about a 23% reduction at a time when the above diesel and naptha prices per barrel declined by over 50%.

I was going to complain about that in this letter until I saw the newly approved Residential rate of $0.275/kWh for December. I had actually calc'd that it should be at least as low as $0.32/kWh.

Hopefully members will use this reduction in expenses to install solar water heaters, where not done yet, and in all of us developing the personal habits of 'religiously' turning of light switches and appliances when not using them.

KIUC has all kinds of programs to help members with the costs of installing solar water heaters, hopefully Randy can write about that in his next column.

Harnessing Hawaii's renewable energy resource

andrea — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 15:54:02 -0700

Rob Report
Here comes the sun
Harnessing Hawaii's renewable energy resource
by Rob Parsons
http://www.mauitime.com/Articles-i-2008-10-23-186546.112113_Here_comes_t...

"Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting..." so let's quit burning oil.
October 23, 2008
Millions of visitors have marveled at Maui’s dominant landscape feature, the Haleakala Crater, which stands 10,000 feet above sea level and is known as the House of the Sun. It is there, according to Hawaiian mythology, that the demigod Maui lassoed the sun to slow it down, to allow his mother’s tapa cloth to dry.

Though abundant sunshine continues to grace our islands, solar energy may be the most underutilized of an array of abundant local resources. Solar photovoltaic systems represent barely a blip on the screen of statewide electricity production, though nearly 10,000 solar hot water systems help offset energy consumption. The legislature recently passed the “Solar Rooftops” bill that will mandate such systems on all new homes constructed after 2009.

But, other than a recent proposal for a 1.5-megawatt (MW) project on the island of Lanai, there has been little effort to consider large installations of Solar Electrical Generating Systems (SEGS). In 1992, a detailed Hawaii study concluded, “The base case economic analysis finds that SEGS plants do not currently appear to be a [sic] cost-effective solar applications for the State of Hawaii.” Yet the analysis was made when a barrel of crude oil, Hawaii’s primary electrical generation source, cost around $22.

Gary Hooser: Hawaii Energy Proposal -- Transformational

kauaibrad — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:00:28 -0700

From Gary Hooser: http://garyhooser.livejournal.com/25661.html

Hawaii Energy Proposal - Transformational

The recent agreement reached between the State of Hawaii and HECO, the State’s primary energy provider has the potential to fundamentally transform the future of energy in our state.

Unfortunately the local newspapers chose to focus only on the sexy, expensive and potentially controversial proposal to lay an undersea cable between Maui County and the City and County of Honolulu.

The Honolulu Advertiser http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20081021/NEWS01/810210358/1001

The Honolulu Star Bulletin http://www.starbulletin.com/news/hawaiinews/20081021_Isles_power_up_clea...

Totally missing from the stories covered in local media were the provisions on decoupling and feed-in tariff. Also missing from the local news was the lifting of net metering caps, the raising of the Portfolio Standards, the removal of “efficiency savings” from the Portfolio Standard definitions, the restriction against the development of new fossil fuel generators, and numerous other innovative and forward thinking proposals.

This agreement represents the culmination of years of groundwork that has been set into place by the legislature and the recent efforts and very productive collaboration between the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism and the U.S. Department of Energy.

A summary of the agreement:
1) Agreement to an additional 1,000 MW of renewable energy resources on Oahu